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Executive Summary
GLP-1–based obesity pharmacotherapy has evolved from single-hormone appetite suppression into a platform competition spanning poly-agonist biology, delivery convenience, and body-composition optimization. Across patents and scientific literature, three mega-trends now dominate the landscape.
The first is poly-agonist escalation—the progression from GLP-1 alone to dual and then triple or even quad receptor targeting. Scientific literature increasingly frames unimolecular multi-receptor agonism as the primary route toward bariatric-like weight loss outcomes, combining appetite reduction with enhanced energy expenditure and broader metabolic effects [1, 2, 3]. Preclinical work on optimized tri-agonists demonstrates "best-of-both-worlds" profiles, achieving greater energy expenditure and deeper weight normalization than GLP-1-only comparators [4]. Patent filings mirror this escalation, with claims covering dosing regimens and compositions for tri-agonists and next-wave combinations [5, 6].
The second mega-trend positions delivery and adherence as core IP battlegrounds. Patents have grown dense around oral administration, permeation enhancers, and alternative routes including buccal, sublingual, sustained-release depots, and long-duration implants [7, 8, 9, 10]. This tracks the scientific maturation of oral peptide delivery—most notably SNAC-enabled oral semaglutide—and practical adherence guidance emerging in the literature [11, 12]. The signal is unmistakable: innovation is no longer solely about which molecule works best, but how reliably and scalably it can be delivered to patients.
The third mega-trend is the "quality weight loss" race, with emphasis shifting toward fat loss that preserves lean mass. As GLP-1–driven weight loss scales across populations, the accompanying loss of muscle becomes a strategic vulnerability. Papers and patents increasingly explore combination strategies, particularly ActRII and myostatin pathway modulation, to protect muscle while deepening fat reduction [13, 14, 15]. This trend connects to broader regimen and IP claims for combination therapies and adjuncts in obesity care [16, 17].
Looking ahead, the next three to five years will likely see poly-agonist differentiation, oral and non-injectable access expansion, and composition-of-mass outcomes emerge as decisive competitive edges—each visible in both filing activity and the research frontier [1, 2, 9].
Methodology and Assumptions
This analysis covers the period from January 2020 through December 2025 for both patents and scientific papers. The scope encompasses global patent filings and global scientific literature, supplemented by market signals from widely cited industry reporting and analysis.
One important assumption involves data limitations. Exact global year-by-year patent and paper counts were approximated using representative cluster evidence—the presence of repeated filing themes, repeated assignees, and recurring therapeutic and delivery motifs—rather than a complete bibliometric census. Evidence for acceleration is therefore presented as directional (high, medium, or low) rather than absolute totals.
Competitive Landscape: Market Leaders and Emerging Challengers
The GLP-1 obesity market has crystallized into one of the most concentrated competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical history. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have established commanding positions that extend well beyond current product revenue into strategic patent portfolios, manufacturing scale, and clinical pipeline depth.
The scale of market dominance is striking. The five flagship GLP-1 products from these two companies—Novo's Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus alongside Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have collectively generated over $71 billion in U.S. revenue since 2018, with Ozempic alone accounting for roughly half of that total [38]. Projections suggest cumulative revenue could reach $470 billion by 2030, positioning these treatments among the best-selling pharmaceutical products in history [38]. By mid-2025, Lilly had captured approximately 57% of the U.S. GLP-1 market, with tirzepatide-based products accounting for two-thirds of all patients taking obesity medications [39].
Patent strategy has become central to maintaining this dominance. Both companies have built extensive patent thickets around their core molecules, with Novo Nordisk in particular pursuing aggressive filing strategies across new formulations, indications, and delivery methods. As GLP-1s gain approvals for additional disease areas - Novo is studying semaglutide in addiction, osteoarthritis, and MASH—the companies continue extending patent protection through method-of-use claims that could sustain market exclusivity well beyond initial compound patents [40]. Industry observers have noted that these drugs may prove "perpetually novel" through successive re-patenting for different uses, potentially maintaining monopoly positions even as earlier claims expire [40].
Manufacturing capacity has emerged as an equally important competitive moat. Lilly reported producing more than 1.6 times the salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with plans for significant additional manufacturing expansion [39]. This supply advantage proved commercially decisive as Lilly gained market share while Novo struggled with capacity constraints. Both companies are racing to build new production facilities, recognizing that meeting global demand requires infrastructure investments measured in billions of dollars.
Despite this concentration, the competitive landscape is evolving rapidly. Over 100 GLP-1 therapies are currently in active development globally, with approximately 25 candidates in mid-to-late stage trials [41]. The clinical pipeline represents diverse approaches to differentiation, including alternative receptor combinations, novel delivery mechanisms, and improved tolerability profiles.
Several pharmaceutical giants are positioning themselves to challenge the incumbents. Roche entered the obesity market through its $2.7 billion acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics, bringing multiple clinical-stage obesity programs including both injectable and oral GLP-1 candidates [42]. The company's CT-388 dual agonist and CT-996 oral formulation are progressing through Phase II trials, with potential market entry expected by 2029. Pfizer, after discontinuing its initial danuglipron candidate due to safety concerns in April 2025, re-entered the race through a $10 billion acquisition of clinical-stage biotech Metsera in November 2025, securing a next-generation obesity pipeline [43].
Amgen's MariTide represents perhaps the most differentiated challenger approach. The compound combines GLP-1 receptor agonism with GIP receptor antagonism—a novel mechanism informed by human genetics research suggesting GIP inhibition as a key factor in reducing body mass [44]. Phase II data showed weight loss of up to approximately 20% at 52 weeks, with monthly dosing that could offer meaningful convenience advantages over weekly injections. Notably, weight loss had not plateaued at 52 weeks, suggesting potential for further reduction with continued treatment [44].
Smaller biotechs are also advancing promising candidates. Viking Therapeutics' VK-2735 dual GLP-1/GIP agonist demonstrated weight loss of up to 14.7% after just 13 weeks in early trials, generating significant investor interest [45]. Structure Therapeutics is developing GSBR-1290, an oral small molecule GLP-1 agonist that could potentially address the manufacturing scalability challenges facing peptide-based injectables—the company has noted its current manufacturing capacity could theoretically supply over 120 million patients [46].
Analysts project that while Novo and Lilly will likely retain nearly 70% of the total market through 2031 due to first-mover advantages and continued pipeline innovation, new entrants could collectively capture approximately $70 billion of what is expected to become a $200 billion annual market [46]. The window for market entry remains open partly due to persistent supply constraints among current manufacturers and partly because the addressable patient population continues expanding as clinical evidence mounts for GLP-1 benefits across obesity, diabetes, MASH, cardiovascular disease, and other indications.
Detailed Analysis
Trend Velocity Assessment
The velocity of each innovation trend reflects the combined strength of patent activity, scientific publication volume, and market signals. This assessment identifies which areas are accelerating fastest and likely to reshape the competitive landscape over the coming years.
Multi-agonist incretins, encompassing dual and triple receptor agonists, show the highest velocity across all indicators. Patent filings have concentrated on sequence optimization, receptor balance, and dosing regimens [5, 6], while scientific reviews increasingly position these compounds as the next frontier beyond single-target GLP-1 therapy [1, 2]. Market analysts have echoed this enthusiasm, with pipeline assessments highlighting tirzepatide's success as validation of the dual-agonist approach and positioning triple agonists as the next wave [18, 19]. The three-to-five year outlook for this category is very high.
Oral and non-injectable GLP-1 delivery has similarly generated substantial momentum. The patent landscape reflects intense focus on permeation enhancers, solid oral compositions, and buccal or sublingual alternatives to injection [7, 8, 9]. Scientific literature has matured around oral peptide delivery mechanisms and real-world adherence implications [11, 12], while market reporting indicates strong commercial interest in removing the injection barrier [18, 20]. Analysts project oral drugs could represent approximately 20% of the estimated $80 billion GLP-1 obesity market by 2030 [47]. This trend carries a high velocity outlook.
Sustained-release depots and implants represent a parallel delivery innovation track. Patents describe self-assembling peptide systems and implantable devices designed for months-long semaglutide release [21, 10], aligning with clinical research on long-acting formulations [22]. Market signals remain moderate as these technologies are earlier in development, but the overall velocity is high given the clear strategic value of reducing dosing frequency.
Lean-mass preservation add-ons have emerged as a distinct innovation category. As awareness grows that GLP-1–induced weight loss can include significant muscle loss, patents have begun claiming combinations with myostatin and ActRII pathway modulators [14, 15], while scientific papers examine the mechanisms and clinical implications of body composition changes during incretin therapy [13, 23]. Market analysts have flagged this as a potential differentiator for next-generation therapies [18, 24]. The velocity here is high and accelerating.
Combination therapy expansion for metabolic comorbidities rounds out the top-tier trends. Patents cover coformulations with SGLT2 inhibitors, thyroid hormone receptor beta agonists, and other metabolic targets [25, 26], mirroring the scientific literature's growing focus on GLP-1's effects across MASH, cardiovascular disease, and other obesity-related conditions [27, 28]. Market sizing for these expanded indications has been substantial [18, 29], yielding a very high velocity assessment.
Several additional trends warrant monitoring, though with somewhat lower current velocity. Alternative satiety hormones such as PYY and NPY2 agonists show medium-to-high activity, with patents from major players [30, 31] and scientific reviews exploring their potential as complements or alternatives to GLP-1 [32]. New delivery routes including sublingual, intranasal, and inhaled formulations have attracted patent interest [9, 33, 34] and some scientific attention [35], though market signals remain limited. Microbiome and nutraceutical GLP-1 modulation represents an emerging but still nascent category, with early patents [36] and scientific exploration [37] but minimal commercial traction to date.
Patent Filing Patterns by Innovation Category
Examining patent activity from 2020 through 2025 reveals clear directional trends across innovation categories, even without precise filing counts.
Poly-agonist peptides have shown strong upward trajectory, with claims typically centered on peptide sequences, receptor binding ratios, and optimized dosing regimens. Representative filings include tri-agonist dosing systems and triple agonist compositions from Eli Lilly [5, 6], signaling continued investment in this approach by leading developers.
Oral peptide delivery has demonstrated similarly strong upward momentum. Patents focus on enhancers, absorption technologies, and solid dosage forms, exemplified by Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 use claims and various buccal and sublingual compositions from multiple assignees [7, 8, 9]. The density of activity reflects the commercial prize of an effective oral alternative to injection.
Long-acting depots and implants show clear upward direction, with patent claims emphasizing months-long release profiles. Examples include self-assembling peptide systems for controlled release and implantable long-duration semaglutide devices [21, 10]. These technologies address the adherence challenge from a different angle than oral delivery, potentially offering set-and-forget convenience.
Combination regimens pairing GLP-1 agonists with adjunct pathways represent another area of strong upward filing activity. Patents cover coformulations with SGLT2 inhibitors, incretin combinations, and thyroid receptor agonist pairings [25, 26], reflecting the clinical reality that many patients will benefit from multi-mechanism approaches.
Body composition protection, focused on muscle and bone preservation during weight loss, shows upward direction with growing patent interest. Filings claiming myostatin and ActRII pathway combinations with GLP-1 agonists [14] point toward future therapies designed to optimize the quality rather than just quantity of weight loss.
Scientific Publication Patterns by Theme
The scientific literature from 2020 through 2025 reveals parallel trends, with publication volume concentrated in areas that mirror patent activity.
Multi-agonist mechanisms and outcomes have attracted strong and growing attention. Reviews and primary research increasingly examine why dual and triple approaches outperform GLP-1 alone, exploring the synergistic effects of GIP co-agonism and glucagon receptor activation on both weight loss and metabolic parameters [1, 2, 3, 4].
Oral and alternative delivery research has similarly expanded. Publications address the pharmacokinetic challenges of oral peptide delivery, real-world effectiveness of approved oral formulations, and emerging technologies for non-injectable administration [11, 12, 35].
Combination therapy for MASH, cardiovascular disease, and other comorbidities represents another high-volume publication area. The scientific community has moved beyond viewing GLP-1 agonists solely as diabetes or obesity drugs, with substantial literature examining benefits across the metabolic disease spectrum [27, 28].
Body composition and sarcopenia concerns have generated moderate but rapidly growing publication volume. Papers examine the degree and significance of lean mass loss during GLP-1 therapy, mechanisms underlying this effect, and potential mitigation strategies [13, 23]. This emerging literature reflects clinical awareness that weight loss quality matters alongside quantity.
Unmet Needs and Whitespace Opportunities
Despite the remarkable clinical and commercial success of GLP-1 agonists, significant unmet needs persist that define the whitespace for next-generation innovation. These gaps represent both clinical challenges requiring solutions and strategic opportunities for companies seeking differentiation in an increasingly crowded market.
The lean mass preservation problem has emerged as perhaps the most pressing clinical concern. Research indicates that fat-free mass loss accounts for 25-40% of total weight lost during GLP-1 therapy, a rate dramatically exceeding age-related declines of approximately 8% per decade [48]. This substantial muscle loss carries meaningful health implications. A 2025 University of Virginia study concluded that while GLP-1 drugs significantly reduce body weight and adiposity, they do so "with no clear evidence of cardiorespiratory fitness enhancement"—a critical finding given that cardiorespiratory fitness is among the most potent predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality [48]. The researchers expressed concern that this pattern could ultimately compromise patients' metabolic health, healthspan, and longevity.
Clinical observations reinforce these concerns. Physicians report patients describing sensations of muscle "slipping away" during treatment, while some patients experience what has been termed "Ozempic face"—premature facial aging resulting from rapid fat and muscle loss [48]. The World Health Organization's December 2025 guidelines emphasized the importance of resistance training to protect muscle mass during GLP-1 therapy, acknowledging this as a limitation of current treatment approaches [49]. This gap has catalyzed significant R&D investment in muscle-sparing adjuncts, including myostatin inhibitors and ActRII pathway modulators that could be combined with GLP-1 agonists to preserve lean mass while maintaining fat loss efficacy.
Weight regain upon discontinuation represents another substantial unmet need. Clinical evidence consistently demonstrates that patients regain approximately one-third of lost weight within the first year of stopping GLP-1 therapy, with longer-term studies suggesting even more substantial rebound [50]. This pattern reflects the chronic, relapsing nature of obesity and has prompted the WHO to recommend continuous, long-term treatment lasting six months or more—effectively positioning these medications as lifetime therapies for many patients [51]. The clinical and economic implications of indefinite treatment are considerable, driving innovation in approaches that might allow successful maintenance without continuous medication or that could extend dosing intervals substantially.
Access and affordability constraints limit the population that can benefit from current therapies. The WHO has noted that even with rapid manufacturing expansion, GLP-1 therapies are projected to reach fewer than 10% of those who could benefit by 2030 [51]. In the United States, where Wegovy and Zepbound carry list prices exceeding $1,000 per month, approximately one in eight adults report currently taking a GLP-1 drug—but this represents a small fraction of the more than 40% of American adults classified as obese [52]. The WHO guidelines call for urgent action on manufacturing, affordability, and system readiness, recommending strategies such as pooled procurement, tiered pricing, and voluntary licensing to expand global access [51].
Tolerability remains a limiting factor for patient adherence. Gastrointestinal adverse events including nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea are common with current GLP-1 agonists, leading some patients to discontinue treatment or fail to reach maximally effective doses. This has driven interest in alternative mechanisms and combination approaches that might deliver comparable efficacy with improved side effect profiles. Amgen's MariTide, which combines GLP-1 agonism with GIP antagonism, was specifically designed based on genetic evidence suggesting this combination could reduce nausea while maintaining weight loss efficacy [44]. Similarly, amylin analogs like Eli Lilly's eloralintide work through different hormonal pathways and may offer advantages for patients who cannot tolerate GLP-1-based treatments [53].
Non-responders and partial responders represent an underserved population requiring novel approaches. While GLP-1 agonists produce dramatic results for many patients, a meaningful subset achieves suboptimal weight loss or experiences diminishing efficacy over time. This variability likely reflects heterogeneity in the biological drivers of obesity across individuals, suggesting opportunity for precision medicine approaches that match patients to optimal therapeutic mechanisms. Emerging research on melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) agonists combined with GLP-1/GIP agonists has shown promise for enhanced weight loss and prevention of weight regain, potentially addressing the needs of patients who plateau on current monotherapy [53].
Pediatric and adolescent obesity remains largely unaddressed by current approvals and clinical evidence. While adult obesity rates have driven commercial focus, childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions globally, with limited therapeutic options available for younger patients. The long-term implications of treating developing individuals with potent metabolic modulators remain uncertain, creating both clinical need and regulatory complexity for companies considering pediatric development programs.
These unmet needs collectively define the innovation agenda for the next generation of obesity therapeutics. Companies that successfully address muscle preservation, reduce discontinuation-related regain, improve access and tolerability, or develop precision approaches for treatment-resistant patients will capture meaningful differentiation in what promises to become an increasingly commoditized market for first-generation GLP-1 agonists.
Strategic Implications
The convergence of patent activity and scientific publication patterns points toward several strategic conclusions for organizations operating in this space.
First, the poly-agonist thesis has achieved sufficient validation that the competitive question is no longer whether multi-receptor approaches will succeed, but rather which specific receptor combinations and ratios will prove optimal for different patient populations. Organizations lacking poly-agonist programs face an increasingly difficult competitive position.
Second, delivery innovation has become table stakes. The commercial success of any weight loss therapeutic will depend heavily on patient acceptability and adherence, making oral, long-acting depot, and other non-injectable options critical pipeline priorities rather than nice-to-have features.
Third, the body composition narrative represents both a clinical imperative and a marketing opportunity. As lean mass preservation gains prominence in scientific discussion, therapies that can demonstrate muscle-sparing properties—whether through receptor selectivity, combination approaches, or adjunct treatments—will claim meaningful differentiation.
Fourth, manufacturing scale and supply chain reliability have emerged as competitive advantages distinct from molecular innovation. The ability to meet global demand consistently may prove as valuable as clinical superiority in determining market share over the coming years.
Finally, the expanded indication landscape suggests that the GLP-1 platform will increasingly compete not just within obesity, but across MASH, cardiovascular protection, and potentially other metabolic conditions. The IP and development strategies of leading players reflect this broader therapeutic ambition.
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To learn how Cypris can accelerate your obesity therapeutics intelligence workflows, visit cypris.ai or request a demonstration tailored to your specific pipeline and competitive monitoring needs.
This article was powered by Cypris Q, an AI agent that helps R&D teams instantly synthesize insights from patents, scientific literature, and market intelligence from around the globe. Discover how leading R&D teams use CypriQ to monitor technology landscapes and identify opportunities faster - Book a demo
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